Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 3.345813 3.628632 3.952576 4.358654 4.866082 5.497929 6.379425
2024-12-22 2.924169 3.262104 3.675810 4.240155 5.029878 6.177271 8.197850
2024-12-29 2.753997 3.137495 3.631688 4.354923 5.478279 7.403429 12.087076
2025-01-05 2.544212 2.927337 3.433412 4.200934 5.463121 7.859149 15.446690
2025-01-12 2.375335 2.750778 3.254890 4.038246 5.379979 8.137079 19.480829
2025-01-19 2.261103 2.635851 3.147598 3.963498 5.424863 8.724607 29.674380
2025-01-26 2.216919 2.610707 3.162770 4.080007 5.852428 10.650948 NaN
2025-02-02 2.197451 2.616702 3.221930 4.276871 6.519453 14.572420 NaN
2025-02-09 2.139683 2.563366 3.184954 4.298519 6.808471 18.039563 NaN
2025-02-16 2.092401 2.521586 3.161379 4.339849 7.168136 24.304619 NaN
2025-02-23 2.011737 2.426489 3.046229 4.192543 6.970637 24.780643 NaN
2025-03-02 1.963208 2.376378 2.999761 4.172908 7.135943 32.327382 NaN
2025-03-09 1.913738 2.324712 2.950834 4.150080 7.314682 48.614143 NaN
2025-03-16 1.853190 2.253998 2.866751 4.047886 7.215811 59.001758 NaN
2025-03-23 1.834381 2.244735 2.882757 4.151956 7.855718 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.775585 2.172223 2.788473 4.012682 7.571566 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.718574 2.100744 2.693153 3.864910 7.230781 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.678290 2.053558 2.636894 3.796804 7.177558 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.669415 2.053842 2.660595 3.902902 7.843877 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.671211 2.070427 2.713088 4.081444 8.999902 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.649262 2.048943 2.697505 4.101021 9.438839 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.630923 2.032408 2.689693 4.138368 10.032911 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.590581 1.979831 2.614956 4.005077 9.515100 NaN NaN